Deep dives · Perception and reality
How unsafe we feel, and how unsafe we are
Over time, fear of crime moves much more than reported crime. From place to place the two agree more closely, but with striking exceptions. In Italy as a whole, in the big cities and province by province.
Fear moves more than crime
Households reporting crime in their area and reported crimes, on the same axis
Reported crimes per 100,000 residents, Italy
Households reporting crime or vandalism in the area where they live, %
European EU-SILC survey. The question differs from the one on perceived risk used further down, which is why the levels do not match.
Reported crime and fear in the big cities
The cities where ISTAT measures every year how many households consider their area very or fairly at risk of crime.
Reported crimes and perceived risk, 2024
Horizontal axis: crimes per 100,000 residents. Vertical axis: households that consider their area very or fairly at risk. The hollow circle is Italy.
Two rankings, the same cities
On the left by reported crimes per 100,000 residents, on the right by households that feel their area is at risk; 1 is the highest value. The steepest lines are the cities where the two rankings disagree.
Province by province
The same question on perceived risk, asked in every province: a wider comparison than the one between the big cities.
How to read these numbers
Reported crimes are not all crimes, only the part official data manage to count, and a rate on residents weighs more where commuters and tourists arrive. Perception comes from two surveys that ask different questions, and in small provinces the estimate swings from one year to the next.
How the numbers were built, and sources
Two different questions on perception
ISTAT’s Aspects of Daily Life survey asks households whether the area where they live is very, fairly, not very or not at all at risk of crime: this is the figure for the big cities and the provinces. The European EU-SILC survey asks whether there are problems of crime, violence or vandalism in the area: this is the figure for the long national series. That is why the levels do not match.
Reported crimes are not all crimes
Reported crimes are those the police have passed on to the judicial authorities. Many crimes are never reported, and the propensity to report them varies from crime to crime and from place to place.
The rate is calculated on residents
In cities that take in commuters, students and tourists every day, crimes also affect people who do not live there, so the rate per resident comes out higher than the real likelihood of being a victim for those who do. Fear, on the other hand, is reported by residents.
The provincial estimates
Perception by province comes from a sample survey: in small provinces few households are interviewed. This is why the chart uses the average of the available years, for perception and for reported crimes alike. In Sardegna, crimes follow the four historical provinces, as in the rest of the atlas, while ISTAT measures perception by today’s provinces: each goes into the historical province that holds most of its municipalities, adding up the households. The Cagliari point combines Cagliari and Sud Sardegna; Nuoro, Oristano and Sassari differ from the historical ones by a few municipalities.
Sources
For the method behind the whole atlas: Methodology and sources.
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